I’ll be live at this game Thursday night so I thought I’d get myself up to speed before the game and share some of my research with you.

Why does this game matter?

Of course us in the media like to play the games before they happen. But if the other games happen within the range of what I expect, the top 3 teams in this district will be College Park, Willis and The Woodlands.

That leaves the 4th spot open for one of these teams. And I think the winner of this game will be the 4th place team in the district and take the 4th playoff spot and be the Division 1 #2 seed from 13-6A. They would likely play a tough opponent in the first round of the playoffs in Spring Westfield.

A Quick Look at the Teams

The Conroe Tigers (4-1, 2-1) are averaging scoring 25.4 points per game (that’s 6th in 13-6A) and are averaging surrendering 16.2 points per game (that’s 3rd in 13-6A). Their only loss on the season was 35-0 to College Park in Week 3.

On the season the Tigers run the ball 61 percent of the time. That’s 169 carries for 731 yards (146.2 yards per game) and 8 of the team’s TDs. Passing the ball the Tigers have completed 64% of their passes totaling 887 yards (177.4 per game) and 6 of the team’s TDs.

Defensively the Tigers are averaging 3 sacks per game. They have 1 interception and 6 recovered fumbles, 2 of which were returned for TDs.

The Tigers also returned 1 kickoff for a TD.

The Grand Oaks Grizzlies (4-2, 2-2) are averaging scoring 32.8 points per game (that’s 4th in 13-6A) and are averaging surrendering 18.82 points per game (that’s 4th in 13-6A). Their only losses on the season were 45-14 to The Woodlands Week 3 and 41-14 to College Park in Week 5.

On the season the Grizzlies run the ball 63 percent of the time. That’s 204 carries for 1464 yards (244.0 yards per game) and 15 of the team’s TDs. Passing the ball the Grizzlies have completed 52% of their passes totaling 785 yards (130.8 pet game) and 12 of the team’s TDs.

Defensively the Grizzlies are averaging 2.2 sacks per game. They have 3 interceptions and 6 recovered fumbles. The Grizzlies also have 1 safety on the season.

The Grizzlies also returned 1 punt for a TD.

The Players

When Conroe is on offense Senior QB Cameron Nunley will be under center. Nunley is 66 of 104 on the year passing the ball for 880 yards with 6 TDs versus 4 interceptions. Nunley has also carried the ball 37 times for 25 yards and 1 TD.

When Nunley throws the ball his favorite targets are Senior Elijah Harris (21 receptions, 329 yards, 2 TDs) and Senior Braylen Mills (19 receptions, 219 yards, 1 TD). Senior Kaden Barnaby also has 2 TD receptions (of his 7 catches for 111 yards). The last receiver over 100 yards on the season for the Tigers is Senior Alex Spence-Meyers with 121 yards receiving on 10 receptions.

Spence-Meyers carries the load when the Tigers are running the ball. He has 101 of the Tigers 169 carries on the season. Spence-Mayers has gained 619 yards with 7 TDs. The only other Tigers to carry the ball more than 10 times are QB Nunley and Senior Shane Paterson (16 carries, 39 yards).

On the defensive side of the ball Senior C.J. Mooring leads the team with 38 tackles (4 TFL, 1.5 sacks). Senior Azi Quintanilla has 32 tackles (5 TFL, 2 sacks). Senior Kayne Smith as 27 tackles (2 TFL). Senior K.D. Williams has 22 tackles (4 TFL, 2 sacks). Senior Casey Stout has 22 tackles (1 TFl, 1 sack). Junior Alexander Coey and Junior Denzel Haynes specialize in the TFL. Coey has 14 tackles on the season with 7.5 of those TFLs (1 sack). Haynes has 13 tackles on the season with 7 of those TFLs (1 sack).

Senior Justandon Pruitt leads the team in sacks with 3. The only other player with multiple sacks not mentioned above is Senior Duntavian Duckket with 2 sacks.

The teams sole interception was by Senior Kayne Smith.

Senior James Koslosky has recovered 3 fumbles. The other fumbles were recovered by Junior Brycin Penny, Stout and Coey.

Senior Nolan Bradbury handles the kickoff, field goal and PAT duties. He’s 5 of 7 of on field goal attempts with a long of 42 yards. He is perfect on the season on PATs (16 of 16).

Senior Roberto Garcia handles the punting duties. He is averaging 36.9 yards per punt with a long of 51 yards.

When Grand Oaks is on offense Senior Grant Smith will be under center. Smith is 51 of 100 on the year passing the ball for 649 yards with 7 TDs versus 2 interceptions. Smith has also carried the ball 16 times for 117 yards and 4 TDs.

Junior Pierceson Lackey has also seen time under center. Lackey is 11 of 18 on the year passing the ball for 136 yards with 5 TDs versus 3 interceptions. Lackey has carried the ball 12 times for 186 yards and 1 TD.

When the Grizzlies throw the ball, the favorite targets are Junior Darnell Jackson, Jr (20 receptions, 285 yards, 4 TDs) and Senior Preston Cloud (13 receptions, 165 yards, 3 TDs). The only other receiver over 100 yards is Senior Kellan Gause (6 receptions, 119 yards, 2 TDs)..

The Grizzlies load in running the ball is shared between Gause (96 carries, 676 yards, 6 TDs) and Junior Bryan Victorian, Jr (65 carries, 407 yards, 4 TDs).

On the defensive side of the ball, Senior Scotty Routon leads the team in tackles with 39 (3 TFL, 1.5 sacks). Senior Aaron Times has 28 tackles ( 7 TFL, 4 sacks). Senior Isaac Smith has 27 tackles (2 TFL). Senior Kevin Ross II has 23 tackles. Junior Jaylen Ashley has 22 tackles (1 TFL). Senior Cullen Thompson has 20 tackles (9 TFL, 4.5 sacks).

Senior Jensen Solares, Senior Isaac Smith and Junior Jaylen Ashley have 1 interception each.

6 different players have recovered 1 fumble each for the Grizzles: Junior Peyton Nickle, Junior Zion Rollins, Ross, Sophomore Bruce Warren II, Ashley and Senior Vance Parks.

Junior Kaden Rosado handles the kick off duties. Rasdo has 11 touchbacks in 35 kickoffs.

Junior Mason Woodel handles the PAT and FG duties. Woodel is 21 of 22 on PATs and 1 for 1 on FGs. The 1 FG was 27 yards.

Rosado also handles the punting duites and is averaging 41.5 yards per punt with a long of 60 yards.

Common Opponents

Both teams have played College Park and New Caney.

Grand Oaks beat New Caney 49-7. Conroe beat New Caney 24-10.

Grand Oaks lost to College Park 41-14. Conroe lost to College Park 35-0.

Projections On This Game

Dave Campbell’s Computer (otherwise known as Jerry Forest of pigskinprep.com) has Grand Oaks as a 2 point favorite.

Massey Ratings (masseyratings.com) has Conroe as a 1 point favorite.

I have my own projector spreadsheet I use from time-to-time that looks at each teams performance against their opponents average performance. That projector has Grand Oaks as a 4 point favorite.

So that all means that from a statistical scoring perspective, these teams are very evenly matched.

What I Expect to See

I expect to see a two very evenly matched teams on Thursday night.

Conroe will be a little more comfortable in a lower scoring game while Grand Oaks might like to see a little more scoring. Neither team wants this to be a shootout.

I expect to see a game where the winner scores between 21-28 points. In my opinion, if the score gets much over that it favors Grand Oaks. If the score is lower than that it favors Conroe.

You can follow me on Twitter (I’ll never calls it by that single letter name) @txhsfb. Check Twitter and txhsfb.net on Friday for a photo gallery from the game.

Happy Football To All!