Based on what I know and don’t know here are the scenarios for all the districts included in my GHA rankings. If I don’t know the precise rules or the tiebreakers are overly convoluted, I listed the most likely scenario(s).
GHA District Overview/ Playoff Scenarios Headed to Week 11
13-6A
Clinched
Willis
The Woodlands
Oak Ridge
Win & In
College Park
Conroe
D1-1 The Woodlands
D1-2 Winner of College Park/ Conroe
D2-1 Winner of Willis/ Oak Ridge
D2-2 Loser of Willis/ Oak Ridge
Note: Two games this final week have meaning. Willis/ Oak Ridge will settle the seeding in D2. College Park/ Conroe will determine the 4th place team and the D1 #2 seed.
14-6A
Clinched
Westfield
Nimitz
DeKaney
Win & In
Spring
Needs Help
Ike
Scenarios
Spring wins or looses by 3 or less, Spring finishes 4th.
Spring losses to Ike by 4 or more, Ike finishes 4th.
If Springs finishes fourth:
D1-1 Westfield
D1-2 Spring
D2-1 Dekaney
D2-2 Nimitz
If Ike finishes fourth:
D1-1 Westfield
D1-2 DeKaney
D2-1 Nimitz
D2-2 Ike
Note: If Ike makes the playoffs, DeKaney moves up to D1.
15-6A
Clinched
Klein Collins
Tomball Memorial
Tomball
Klein Cain
D1-1 Klein Collins
D1-2 Klein Cain
D2-1 Tomball Memorial
D2-2 Tomball
Note: This district is all set in terms of playoff teams and seeding.
16-6A
Clinched
Bridgeland
Cy Springs
Cy Falls
Cy Ranch
D1-1 Bridgeland
D1-2 Cy Ranch
D2-1 Cy Falls (if Cy Falls wins or Cy Springs looses)
D2-1 Cy Springs (if Cy Falls wins or Cy Springs looses)
Note: Only the D2 seeding is left to be determined.
17-6A
Clinched
Cy Fair
Startford
Memorial
Jersey Village
D1-1 Cy Fair
D1-2 Jersey Village
D2-1 Stratford (unless Memorial wins and Stratford looses)
D2-2 Memorial (Unless Memorial wins and Stratford looses)
Note: Only D2 seeding left to be determined.
18-6A
Clinched
Lamar
Heights
Bellaire
Win & In
Westside
Needs Help
Westbury
Westside 4th
D1-1 Bellaire
D1-2 Westside
D2-1 Lamar
D2-2 Heights
Westbury 4th
D1-1 Lamar
D1-2 Bellaire
D2-1 Heights
D2-2 Sam Houston or Westbury
Notes: Lamar, Heights and Bellaire could theoretically wind up in a 3-way tie for first. Bellaire would have to beat Lamar by the maximum spread allowed in the district to force an unbreakable 3-way tie. I am not sure how unbreakable ties are handled 18-6A. Coin flip anyone?
This scenario is unlikely so I am treating the above as if Lamar either wins or looses by less than the maximum.
If Westside beats Sam Houston this week, Westside will be 4th. If Sam Houston wins, Westbury will be 4th.
If Westside wins, Lamar is D2. If Sam Houston wins, Lamar is D1.
19-6A
Clinched
Katy
Tompkins
Taylor
Win & In
Jordan
Needs Help
Cinco Ranch
Jordan fourth
D1-1 Katy
D1-2 Tompkins
D2-1 Taylor
D2-2 Jordan
Cinco Ranch fourth
D1-1 Tompkins
D1-2 Cinco
D2-1 Katy
D2-2 Taylor
Notes: There are 4 games this week that could change finish order but only 2 games that can impact seedings.
Katy, Tompkin and Taylor have clinched. If Cinco Ranch wins AND Jordan looses, Cinco Ranch makes the playoffs. Any other combo Jordan makes the playoffs.
If Cinco Ranch is in, Katy is D2. If Jordan is in, Katy is D1.
20-6A
Clinched
Ridge Point
Hightower
George Ranch
Win & In
Travis
Needs Help
Austin
If Travis 4th
D1-1 Ridge Point
D1-2 Travis
D2-1 Hightower
D2-2 George Ranch
If Austin 4th
D1-1 Ridge Point
D1-2 George Ranch
D2-1 Hightower
D2-2 Austin
Note: for Austin to make the playoffs they must beat Hightower and have Travis lose to Bush. Otherwise Travis finishes fourth.
Travis would go D1. Austin would go D2.
21-6A
Clinched
North Shore
Atascocita
Summer Creek
Win & In
King
Needs Help
Kingwood
D1-1 North Shore
D1-2 Atascocita
D2-1 Summer Creek
D2-2 King or Kingwood
Note: In order for Kingwood to make the playoffs they have to finish in front of King. That means Kingwood would have beat North Shore and King would have to lose to West Brook. Any other combination and King is 4th.
22-6A
Clinched
Dobie
Deer Park
Pasadena Memorial
Channelview
D1-1 Dobie
D1-2 Deer Park
D2-1 Pasadena Memorial / Channelview winner
D2-2 Pasadena Memorial/ Channelview loser
23-6A
Clinched
Shadow Creek
Pearland
Dawson
Win & In
Strake Jesuit
Needs Help
Eslik
Hastings
If Strake 4th
D1-1 Pearland
D1-2 Shadow Creek
D2-1 Dawson
D2-2 Strake
If Elsik 4th
D1-1 Pearland
D1-2 Elsik
D2-1 Shadow Creek
D2-2 Dawson
If Hastings 4th
D1-1 Pearland
D1-2 Hastings
D2-1 Shadow Creek
D2-2 Dawson
Notes: Strake Jesuit, Elsik and Hastings can all still make the playoffs.
Hasting and Elsik must win or they are eliminted.
If Strake winds up in a headups tie with Elsik, Elsik wins.
If Stake winds up in a headsup tie with Hastings, Strake Wins.
Hastings wins a three-way tie between Strake, Elsik and Hastings
Strake wins a three-way tie betwen Strake, Taylor and Hastings.
24-6A
Clinched
Dickinson
Clear Falls
Clear Springs
Clear Creek
D1-1 Dickinson
D1-2 Clear Springs
D2-1 Clear Falls/ Clear Creek Winner
D2-2 Clear Falls/ Clear Creek Loser
8-5AD1
Clinched
La Porte
Barbers Hill
Port Arthur Memorial
Porter
If Barbers Hill & Port Arthur Memorial Win
1 Barbers Hill
2 Port Arthur Memorial
3 La Porte
4 Porter
If Barbers Hill wins & Port Arthur Memorial looses
1 La Porte
2 Babers Hill
3 Port Arthur Memorial
4 Porter
If Barbers Hill looses & Port Arthur Memorial wins
1 Port Arthur Memorial
2 La Porte
3 Porter
4 Barbers Hill
9-5AD1
Clinched
Ball
Sterling
Win & In
Wisdom
Madison
Needs Help
Waltrip
1 Ball
2 Sterling, Wisdom or Madison
3 Sterling, Wisdom, Madison or Waltrip
4 Sterling, Wisdom, Madison or Waltrip
Notes: Sterling has clinched but can finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th.
The most likely scenario has Wisdom, Madison and Waltrip in a 3-way tie for 3rd.
Madison and Waltrip are the most likely teams to advance from this three way tie.
Wisdom wins a heads up tie against Madison but looses to Waltrip.
Madison wins aheads up against Waltrip but looses to Wisdom.
Waltip wins a heads up against Wisdom but looses to Madison.
10-5AD1
Clinched
Fulshear
Magnolia
Magnolia West
Angleton
1 Fulshear
2 Magnolia
3 Magnolia West
4 Angleton
Note: Nothing to see here this week. Move along.
9-5AD2
Clinched
PNG
Texas City
FB Marshall
Nederland
Marshall wins OR Nederland looses
1 PNG
2 Texas City
3 FB Marshall
4 Nederland
Marshall loses AND Nederland wins
1 PNG
2 Texas City
3 Nederland
4 Fort Bend Marshall
10-5AD2
Clinched
Lake Creek
Randle
Huntsville
Brenham
1 Lake Creek
2 Randle/ Huntsville winner
3 Randle/ Hunstville lose
4 Brenham
Note: Lake Creek and Brenham are locked is as the 1st and 4th seeds respectvely. The Randle/ Huntsville game will settle 2nd and 3rd.
10-4AD1
Clinched
Lumberton
LCM
Vidor
Livingston
If Vidor wins or Livingston looses
1 Lumberton
2 LCM
3 Vidor
4 Livingston
If Vidor looses and Livingston wins
1 Lumberton
2 LCM
3 Livingston
4 Vidor
Note: Only thing left to decide is order of 3rd and 4th.
11-4AD1
Clinched
Yates
Worthing
North Forest
Win & In
Furr
Kashmere
1 Yates/ Worthing winner
2 Yates/ Worthing looses
3 North Forest
4 Furr/ Kashmere winner
Note: North Forest is locked into the 3rd spot. Yates and Worthing play this week to settle 1st and 2nd. Furr/ Kashmere is a go or go home game.
12-4AD1
Clinched
Iowa Colony
Needville
Win & In
Bay CIty
El Campo
1 Iowa Colony/ Needville winner
2 Iowa Colony/ Needville looser
3 Bay City (If win), or El Campo
4 Bay City, Navasota or El Campo
Note:Bay City & Navasota clinch with an El Campo loss.
There is still a three way tie possible between Bay City, Navasota & El Campo.
El Campo wins the three way tie but it is currently unclear who would finish 4th in this tiebreaker.
9-4AD2
Clinched
Silsbee
Hamshire-Fannett
Jasper
West Orange Stark
If Silsbee beats Jasper
1 Silsbee
2 Hamshire-Fannett
3 Jasper
4 West Orange-Stark
If Jasper beats Silsbee
1 Silsbee, Hamshire-Fannett, Jasper
2 Silsbee, Hamshire-Fannett, Jasper
3 Silsbee, Hamshire-Fannett, Jasper
4 West Orange-Stark
Note; I don’t have the tiebreaker procedure for this district so I’m not certain of the order of finish in the case of a 3-way tie for first.
10-4AD2
Clinched
Bellville
Win & In
Sweeny
Royal
Columbia
Needs Help
Sealy
La Marque
Most Likely
1 Bellville
2 Royal
3 Sweeny
4 Columbia
Note: There are so many possible combinations here that I’m not
going to try to figure all of them out. The easy ones are Sweeny, Royal and Columbia are all in with wins. But not all of them can win as Royal and Columbia play each other. I’ve listed what I consider ost likely over, but there are certain other plausible scenarios that in Sealy and LaMarque.
10-3AD1
Clinched
Kirbyville
East Chambers
Orangefield
Win & In
Buna
Needs Help
Anahuac
10-3AD1
1 Kirbyville or Orangefield (see below)
2 East Chambers or Kirbyville (see below)
3 East Chambers or Orangefield (see below)
4 Buna or Anahuac (see below)
Note:
For 1st, 2nd & 3rd.
The East Chambers/ Orangefield game will determine 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
If East Chambers wins – 1) Kirbyville, 2) East Chambers, 3) Orangefield.
If Orangefield wins – 1) Orangefield, 2) Kirbyville, 3) East Chambers
For 4th
If Buna wins, Buna is 4th.
If Buna loses and Anahuac wins, Anahuac is 4th.
If Both lose, Buna is 4th.
12-3AD2
Clinched
Newton
Anderson-Shiro
New Waverly
Hemphill
Most Likely
1 Newton
2 Anderson-Shiro
3 New Waverly
4 Hemphill
Note: If Newton wins then the finish is as above.
If New Waverly beats Newton by less than the district maximum, then the order of finish is as above.
If New Waverly beats Newton by the district maximum, then three teams are deadlocked.
I don’t know if this then becomes a coinflip scenario.
14-3AD2
Clinched
Tidehaven
East Bernard
Win & In
Boling
Van Velck
Most likley
1 Tidehaven
2 East Bernard
3 Boling
4 Van Vleck
Note: For Brazos to make the playoffs they have to beat Boling AND have Van Vleck beat Tidehaven,which seems unlikely.
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